Evaluating the impact of increasing temperatures on changes in Soil Organic Carbon stocks: sensitivity analysis and non-standard discrete approximation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new model based on RothC dynamics to assess how increasing temperatures affect Soil Organic Carbon stocks, using sensitivity analysis and a novel monthly approximation method in a protected Italian park.

Contribution

It presents a novel SOC change index model tailored to RothC dynamics, incorporating sensitivity analysis and a non-standard monthly approximation method for specific environmental conditions.

Findings

SOC decreases with temperature increase in arable land

Organic fertilization can reverse SOC decline

Model effectively captures SOC dynamics in protected areas

Abstract

A novel model is here introduced for the SOC change index defined as the normalized difference between the actual Soil Organic Carbon and the value assumed at an initial reference year. It is tailored on the RothC carbon model dynamics and assumes as baseline the value of the SOC equilibrium under constant environmental conditions. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the response of the model to changes of temperature, Net Primary Production (NPP), and land use soil class (forest, grassland, arable). A non-standard monthly time-stepping procedure has been proposed to approximate the SOC change index in the Alta Murgia National Park, a protected area in the Italian Apulia region, selected as test site. In the case of arable class, the SOC change index exhibits a negative trend which can be inverted by a suitable organic fertilization program here proposed.