Potential 3rd COVID Wave in Mumbai: Scenario Analysis

TL;DR

This scenario analysis assesses the potential third COVID-19 wave in Mumbai, considering reinfections and variants, concluding that a large wave is unlikely if immunity and vaccination are maintained.

Contribution

The paper provides an extensive scenario analysis for Mumbai's COVID-19 future, incorporating reinfection risks and variant impacts, which is novel in its detailed localized modeling.

Findings

Approximately 80% of Mumbai's population was exposed by June 2021.

Large third wave unlikely if immunity persists and vaccination coverage is high.

Small waves may occur if reinfections are mild and variants have limited impact.

Abstract

The second wave of Covid-19 that started in mid-February 2021 in Mumbai is now subsiding. Increasingly the focus amongst the policy makers and general public is on the potential third wave. Due to uncertainties regarding emergence of new variants and reinfections, instead of projecting our best guess scenario, in this report we conduct an extensive scenario analysis for Mumbai and track peak fatalities in the coming months in each of these scenarios. Our key conclusions are - As per our model, about 80% of Mumbai population has been exposed to Covid-19 by June 1, 2021. Under the assumption that all who are exposed have immunity against further infection, it is unlikely that Mumbai would see a large third wave. It is the reinfections that may lead to a large wave. Reinfections could occur because of declining antibodies amongst the infected as well as by variants that can break through the immunity provided by prior infections. Even under a reasonably pessimistic scenario we observe the resulting peak to be no larger than that under the second wave. We further observe that under the scenario where the reinfections are mild so that they affect the fatality figures negligibly, where the new variants (beyond the existing delta variant) have a mild impact, as the city opens up, we observe a small wave in the coming months. However, if by then the vaccine coverage is extensive, this wave will be barely noticeable. We also plot $R_t$, the infection growth rate at time $t$, and highlight some interesting observations.