China, India, Myanmar: Playing Rohingya Roulette

TL;DR

This paper analyzes China and India's contrasting foreign policies towards Myanmar amid the Rohingya crisis, highlighting their differing approaches and potential future impacts on Rohingya refugees and regional geopolitics.

Contribution

It provides a comparative analysis of China and India's strategies in Myanmar, revealing how their geopolitical interests influence their responses to the Rohingya crisis.

Findings

China supports Myanmar's actions, prioritizing strategic interests.

India's approach is more cautious, balancing regional influence and humanitarian concerns.

Different policies lead to varied future scenarios for Rohingya refugees.

Abstract

The 2017 crackdown on Rakhine Rohingyas by the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw) pushed more than 600,000 refugees into Bangladesh. Both Western and Islamic countries denounced Aung Sang Suu Kyis government, but both Asian giants, China and India, supported Myanmars actions. Both also have high stakes in Myanmar given their long-term geopolitics and geoeconomic South and Southeast Asian plans. In spite of Myanmar-based commonalities, Chinas and Indias approaches differ significantly, predicting equally dissimilar outcomes. This chapter examines their foreign policy and stakes in Myanmar in order to draw a sketch of the future of Rakhine Rohingyas stuck in Bangladesh.