Non-steady state model of global temperature change: Can we keep temperature from rising more than on two degrees?

TL;DR

This paper introduces a non-steady state climate model that accurately fits historical temperature data and assesses future warming risks, highlighting the potential to exceed two degrees Celsius even with significant CO2 reductions.

Contribution

It presents a physically derived, dynamic model of Earth's temperature that incorporates non-linear feedbacks and evaluates future scenarios including drastic CO2 reductions.

Findings

Model accurately fits 116 years of temperature data

Non-linear feedbacks can lead to exceeding 2°C warming despite CO2 reductions

Develops potential benefits of boreal tree plantations for climate mitigation

Abstract

We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment of the numeric parameters used in the model. It shows an accurate fit with observed changes in the surface mean annual temperature (MAT) for the past 116 years. Using our model, we analyze the future global temperature change under scenarios of drastic reductions of CO\textsubscript{2}. The presence of non-linear feed-backs in the model indicates on the possibility of exceeding two degrees threshold even under the carbon dioxide drastic reduction scenario. We discuss the risks associated with such warming and evaluate possible benefits of developing CO\textsubscript{2}-absorbing deciduous tree plantations in the boreal zone of Northern Hemisphere.