COVID-19 and the gig economy in Poland

TL;DR

This study analyzes the impact of the first COVID-19 wave on Poland's gig economy, revealing increased activity in some delivery services and slight decreases in ride-hailing apps, using passively collected smartphone data and Bayesian models.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive causal analysis of COVID-19's effects on Poland's gig economy using passively collected data and Bayesian structural time-series models.

Findings

Wolt and Glover saw 15% and 24% increases in activity.

Uber and Bolt experienced 3% and 7% decreases.

Changes partly due to upcoming regulation (Uber Lex).

Abstract

We use a dataset covering nearly the entire target population based on passively collected data from smartphones to measure the impact of the first COVID-19 wave on the gig economy in Poland. In particular, we focus on transportation (Uber, Bolt) and delivery (Wolt, Takeaway, Glover, DeliGoo) apps, which make it possible to distinguish between the demand and supply part of this market. Based on Bayesian structural time-series models, we estimate the causal impact of the first COVID-19 wave on the number of active drivers and couriers. We show a significant relative increase for Wolt and Glover (15% and 24%) and a slight relative decrease for Uber and Bolt (-3% and -7%) in comparison to a counterfactual control. The change for Uber and Bolt can be partially explained by the prospect of a new law (the so-called Uber Lex), which was already announced in 2019 and is intended to regulate the work of platform drivers.