A model-independent analysis of neutrino flares detected in IceCube from X-ray selected blazars

TL;DR

This paper proposes a model-independent, time-dependent analysis of neutrino flares from X-ray selected blazars using a decade of IceCube data, aiming to identify statistically significant neutrino emissions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel untriggered, population-based approach to detect neutrino flares from blazars without relying on specific models.

Findings

Preparation of a 10-year IceCube neutrino dataset

Application of a binomial test to identify source populations with significant emission

Development of an unbinned likelihood method for flare parameter estimation

Abstract

Blazars are among the most powerful steady sources in the Universe. Multi-messenger searches for blazars have traditionally focused on their gamma-ray emission, which can be produced simultaneously with neutrinos in photohadronic interactions. However, X-ray data can be equally vital to constrain the SED of these sources, since the hadronically co-produced gamma-rays could get absorbed by the ambient photon fields and cascade down to X-ray energies before escaping. In this work, we present the outline for an untriggered, time-dependent analysis of neutrino flares from the direction of X-ray selected blazars using 10 years of IceCube data. A binomial test will be performed on the population to reveal if a subcategory of sources has statistically significant emission. The sources are selected from RomaBZCat, and the p-values and best-fit flare parameters are obtained for each source using the method of unbinned likelihood maximisation.