National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?

TL;DR

This study compares traditional, machine learning, and hybrid models for peak load forecasting in Korea, finding that LSTM-based models, especially hybrid ones, significantly improve accuracy over traditional time series models.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive comparison of forecasting models, demonstrating the superior performance of LSTM and hybrid models for national-scale peak load prediction.

Findings

Hybrid models outperform SARIMAX in accuracy.

LSTM models outperform other machine learning models.

Including machine learning improves peak load forecasting in Korea.

Abstract

As the volatility of electricity demand increases owing to climate change and electrification, the importance of accurate peak load forecasting is increasing. Traditional peak load forecasting has been conducted through time series-based models; however, recently, new models based on machine or deep learning are being introduced. This study performs a comparative analysis to determine the most accurate peak load-forecasting model for Korea, by comparing the performance of time series, machine learning, and hybrid models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) is used for the time series model. Artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), and long short-term memory (LSTM) are used for the machine learning models. SARIMAX-ANN, SARIMAX-SVR, and SARIMAX-LSTM are used for the hybrid models. The results indicate that the hybrid models exhibit significant improvement over the SARIMAX model. The LSTM-based models outperformed the others; the single and hybrid LSTM models did not exhibit a significant performance difference. In the case of Korea's highest peak load in 2019, the predictive power of the LSTM model proved to be greater than that of the SARIMAX-LSTM model. The LSTM, SARIMAX-SVR, and SARIMAX-LSTM models outperformed the current time series-based forecasting model used in Korea. Thus, Korea's peak load-forecasting performance can be improved by including machine learning or hybrid models.