On a kinetic opinion formation model for pre-election polling

TL;DR

This paper introduces a kinetic opinion formation model incorporating demographic and socio-economic factors, aiming to improve pre-election polling accuracy by simulating how opinions evolve within populations.

Contribution

It extends existing kinetic models by integrating detailed demographic data, providing a more realistic simulation of opinion dynamics in electoral contexts.

Findings

Demonstrates the impact of demographics on opinion formation.

Shows how different socio-economic factors influence election outcomes.

Provides numerical simulations based on UK election data.

Abstract

Motivated by recent successes in model-based pre-election polling, we propose a kinetic model for opinion formation which includes voter demographics and socio-economic factors like age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income and other measurable factors like behaviour in previous elections or referenda as a key driver in the opinion formation dynamics. The model is based on Toscani's kinetic opinion formation model and the leader-follower model of D\"uring et al., and leads to a system of coupled Boltzmann-type equations and associated, approximate Fokker-Planck-type systems. Numerical examples using data from general elections in the United Kingdom show the effect different demographics have on the opinion formation process and the outcome of elections.