Discovery of Bayes' Table at Tunbridge Wells

TL;DR

This paper reports the discovery of Bayes' table, a physical location linked to Thomas Bayes' work, providing a tangible basis for his probability model and establishing his role as the founder of statistical science.

Contribution

It identifies and describes the physical Bayes' table, connecting Bayes' theoretical work to a real-world location, thus grounding his probability model in physical evidence.

Findings

Bayes' table is a real bowling green near Tunbridge Wells.

The table's markings allow calculation of measurement uncertainty.

The discovery links Bayes' theoretical model to a physical site.

Abstract

In 1755 Thomas Bayes expressed an interest in the problem of combining repeated measurements of the location of a star. Bayes described a tandem set-up of a ball thrown on a table, followed by repeated throws of a second ball. Bayes' table has long been taken as a billiard table, for which there is no evidence. We report the discovery of Bayes' table, a bowling green located half a km uphill (SE) from the meeting house where Bayes served as minister for two decades. Bayes' drawing shows a rectangular space marked off in yards, which allows calculation of an interval measurement of uncertainty. The Bayes rule interval from 2.5% to 97.5% is from 0.56 - 0.42 = 0.12 perches equivalent to 0.61 m. The discovery of Bayes' table establishes the physical basis for Bayes' symmetrical probability model, a fixed parameter binomial ({\theta} = 0.5). The discovery establishes Bayes as the founder of statistical science, defined as the application of mathematics to scientific measurement.