Thermodynamics approach to near future of civilization

TL;DR

This paper applies thermodynamics principles to analyze the future of human civilization, suggesting that development follows a path of energy use and potential decline until a new balance is achieved, with implications for sustainability.

Contribution

It introduces a thermodynamics framework to model civilization's development and potential collapse, integrating classical and nonequilibrium thermodynamics with Kardashev's energy-based civilization assessment.

Findings

Civilization development causes energy imbalance and triggers processes to reduce energy production.

A maximum point exists in civilization development, after which decline may occur.

Nature's resistance aims to establish a new lower-energy equilibrium.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to consider the near future of civilization in the framework of thermodynamics. Kardashev's proposal to evaluate the development of celestial civilizations by the amount of energy they are able to use was adopted to translate the concept of human activity into the language of physics. The discussion is limited to considering the last 500 years of history from the beginning of the scientific and technological revolutions to our immediate future. The application of classical and nonequilibrium thermodynamics is discussed. In the framework of classical thermodynamics, two systems are compared: a) the first is a hypothetical quasi-equilibrium system, Earth without a population. Since biological evolution becomes almost imperceptible for a short period of time, such a system remains in the same pristine state for the entire period; (b) the second is our habitable planet, which is not in equilibrium due to rapid anthropogenic evolution and can be considered as a combination of the first system with human civilization. It is shown that in response to the development of civilization (a) the equilibrium of the hypothetical system is disturbed and processes are initiated aimed at reducing the amount of energy produced, and (b) there is a maximum on the path of civilization development over time. The resistance of nature will continue until a new balance is established, corresponding to a lower level of energy production. The central problem is whether humanity is ready and able to agree on a new balance, otherwise the degradation of our planet can lead to the collapse of civilization.