Degrees of riskiness, falsifiability, and truthlikeness. A neo-Popperian account applicable to probabilistic theories

TL;DR

This paper revisits Popperian ideas of riskiness, falsifiability, and truthlikeness, proposing a quantitative framework especially for probabilistic theories to better understand their scientific robustness.

Contribution

It explicitly defines riskiness, explores degrees of falsifiability, and proposes a tentative quantitative account of truthlikeness for probabilistic theories.

Findings

Identified dimensions underlying riskiness.

Defined and related degrees of falsifiability to risk.

Proposed a quantitative measure of verisimilitude for probabilistic theories.

Abstract

In this paper, we take a fresh look at three Popperian concepts: riskiness, falsifiability, and truthlikeness (or verisimilitude) of scientific hypotheses or theories. First, we make explicit the dimensions that underlie the notion of riskiness. Secondly, we examine if and how degrees of falsifiability can be defined, and how they are related to various dimensions of the concept of riskiness as well as the experimental context. Thirdly, we consider the relation of riskiness to (expected degrees of) truthlikeness. Throughout, we pay special attention to probabilistic theories and we offer a tentative, quantitative account of verisimilitude for probabilistic theories.