A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

TL;DR

This paper uses expert consultation to analyze the future trajectory of COVID-19 in Europe, emphasizing vaccination, variants, and public response, and highlights the importance of adaptive policies to prevent healthcare overload.

Contribution

It provides a holistic, expert-informed outlook on COVID-19's future in Europe, integrating epidemiological, social, and economic factors.

Findings

Vaccination progress reduces transmission opportunities.

Emergence of variants of concern complicates control efforts.

Adaptive nonpharmaceutical interventions are necessary to prevent healthcare overload.

Abstract

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COVID-19 in Europe. The future challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern, and public responses to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people are still unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing is expected to increase over the summer. Therefore, policies that lift restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission due to vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in the summer. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, but a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects are put into perspective with the economic, social, and health-related consequences and thereby provide a holistic perspective on the future of COVID-19.