Who Votes for Library Bonds? A Principal Component Exploration

TL;DR

This study uses principal component analysis to clarify how different voter demographics influence support for library bonds, revealing specific demographic patterns linked to voting behavior.

Contribution

It introduces a principal component approach to interpret complex demographic data related to voting on library bonds, improving understanding of voter support factors.

Findings

Low SES, college experience, female, and service job components increase support.

High home value component correlates with opposition.

Principal components explain 95% of demographic variance.

Abstract

Previous research has shown a relationship between voter characteristics and voter support for tax bonds. These findings, however, are difficult to interpret because of the high degree of collinearity across the measures. From 13 demographic measures of voters in a library bond election, seven independent principal components were extracted which accounted for 95 percent of the variance. Whereas the direct demographic measures showed inconsistent relationships with voting, the principal components of low SES, college experience, female and service job were related to affirmative voting, while high home value was related to negative voting.