Stochastic modeling of stratospheric temperature

TL;DR

This paper develops a stochastic model for daily stratospheric temperature, combining deterministic seasonality with a Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, to better understand and predict large-scale atmospheric events.

Contribution

It introduces a novel stochastic model for stratospheric temperature incorporating a Lévy-driven process and seasonal variability, extending previous surface temperature models.

Findings

Residuals follow a normal inverse Gaussian distribution.

Monthly variability in mean reversion speed is observed.

Model improves understanding of stratospheric dynamics.

Abstract

This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for surface temperatures. The proposed model is a sum of a deterministic seasonality function and a L\'evy-driven multidimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean-reverting stochastic process. More specifically, the deseasonalized temperature model is an order 4 continuous time autoregressive model, meaning that the stratospheric temperature is modeled to be directly dependent on the temperature over four preceding days, while the model's longer-range memory stems from its recursive nature. This study is based on temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis model product. The residuals of the autoregressive model are well-represented by normal inverse Gaussian distributed random variables scaled with a time-dependent volatility function. A monthly variability in speed of mean reversion of stratospheric temperature is found, hence suggesting a generalization of the 4th order continuous time autoregressive model. A stochastic stratospheric temperature model, as proposed in this paper, can be used in geophysical analyses to improve the understanding of stratospheric dynamics. In particular, such characterizations of stratospheric temperature may be a step towards greater insight in modeling and prediction of large-scale middle atmospheric events, such as for example sudden stratospheric warmings. Through stratosphere-troposphere coupling, the stratosphere is hence a source of extended tropospheric predictability at weekly to monthly timescales, which is of great importance in several societal and industry sectors.