Travel Cadence and Epidemic Spread

TL;DR

This paper enhances epidemic modeling by incorporating detailed travel patterns and a novel measure called travel cadence, providing insights into how inter-regional travel influences disease spread and informing effective policy strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a refined SEIR model with detailed travel dynamics and the concept of travel cadence, offering high-fidelity analysis of epidemic spread due to inter-regional mobility.

Findings

Travel cadence modulates epidemic spread in two key dimensions.

Policy trajectories can effectively curb spread while maintaining mobility.

Enhanced model provides detailed insights into travel-related epidemic dynamics.

Abstract

In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing ones by having a more detailed representation of travel patterns, without losing tractability. This allows us to study the epidemic consequence of inter-regional travel with high fidelity. In particular, we define \emph{travel cadence} as a two-dimensional measure of inter-regional travel, and show that both dimensions modulate epidemic spread. This technical insight leads to policy recommendations, pointing to a family of simple policy trajectories that can effectively curb epidemic spread while maintaining a basic level of mobility.