Switchover phenomenon induced by epidemic seeding on geometric networks

TL;DR

This paper uncovers a switchover phenomenon in epidemic spread on geometric networks, showing how initial seeding location impacts final outbreak size depending on the basic reproduction number, with implications for understanding epidemic waves.

Contribution

It identifies and mathematically proves a new switchover phenomenon in epidemic outcomes based on initial seeding scenarios on geometric networks, extending prior knowledge.

Findings

Switchover occurs near the critical R0 value.

Central seeding leads to larger outbreaks at low R0.

Uniform seeding dominates at higher R0.

Abstract

It is a fundamental question in disease modelling how the initial seeding of an epidemic, spreading over a network, determines its final outcome. Research in this topic has primarily concentrated on finding the seed configuration which infects the most individuals. Although these optimal configurations give insight into how the initial state affects the outcome of an epidemic, they are unlikely to occur in real life. In this paper we identify two important seeding scenarios, both motivated by historical data, that reveal a new complex phenomenon. In one scenario, the seeds are concentrated on the central nodes of a network, while in the second, they are spread uniformly in the population. Comparing the final size of the epidemic started from these two initial conditions through data-driven and synthetic simulations on real and modelled geometric metapopulation networks, we find evidence for a switchover phenomenon: When the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is close to its critical value, more individuals become infected in the first seeding scenario, but for larger values of $R_0$, the second scenario is more dangerous. We find that the switchover phenomenon is amplified by the geometric nature of the underlying network, and confirm our results via mathematically rigorous proofs, by mapping the network epidemic processes to bond percolation. Our results expand on the previous finding that in case of a single seed, the first scenario is always more dangerous, and further our understanding why the sizes of consecutive waves can differ even if their epidemic characters are similar.