Time Lag Evidence of Anti-Abortion Decree and Perturbation of Births Distribution. A Benford Law Approach

TL;DR

This paper investigates how significant social and political events, especially Romania's 1967 anti-abortion decree, affected birth distributions over time, using Benford's Law to detect distortions and lag effects spanning decades.

Contribution

It applies Benford's Law to analyze birth data for the first time in this context, revealing a 15-year lag and long-lasting impact of the 1967 anti-abortion decree on birth distribution distortions.

Findings

Birth distribution conforms to Benford's Law overall

1967 anti-abortion decree significantly impacts birth distribution

Distortion persists for about 25 years after the event

Abstract

This study analyzes the case of Romanian births, jointly distributed by age-groups of mother and father covering 1958-2019 under the potential influence of significant disruptors. Significant events such as anti-abortion laws application or abrogation, communism fall, and migration and their impact are analyzed. While in practice we may find pro and contra examples, a general controversy arises regarding whether births should or should not obey the Benford Law (BL). Moreover, the significant disruptors' impacts are not detailed discussed in such analysis. I find the distribution of births is First Digit Benford Law (BL1) conformant on the entire sample, but mixed results regarding the BL obedience in the dynamic analysis and by main sub-periods. Even though many disruptors are analyzed, only the 1967 Anti-abortion Decree has a significant impact. I capture an average lag of 15 years between the event, the Anti-abortion Decree, and the start of distortion of the births distribution. The distortion persists around 25 years, almost the entire fertility life (15 to 39) for the majority of the people from the cohorts born in 1967-1968.