Place of Occurrence of COVID-19 Deaths in the UK: Modelling and Analysis

TL;DR

This study models and analyzes the distribution and dynamics of COVID-19 deaths across different settings in the UK, revealing trends and behavioral impacts over multiple pandemic waves.

Contribution

Introduces a modified Weibull and a double logistic model to describe COVID-19 death occurrences and their proportions in various settings in the UK.

Findings

Deaths first peaked in Homes, then Hospitals and Care Homes 1-2 weeks later.

First wave showed rapid growth and slow decline; later waves showed slow growth and rapid decline.

Proportion of deaths in Care Homes increased initially, then decreased after the first wave.

Abstract

We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to COVID-19 at a national and place of occurrence level. We observe similar trends in the UK where deaths due to COVID-19 first peak in Homes, followed by Hospitals and Care Homes 1-2 weeks later in the first and second waves. This is in line with the infectious period of the disease, indicating a possible transmission vehicle between the settings. Our results show that the first wave is characterised by fast growth and a slow reduction after the peak in deaths due to COVID-19. The second and third waves have the converse property, with slow growth and a rapid decrease from the peak. This difference may result from behavioural changes in the population (social distancing, masks, etc). Finally, we introduce a double logistic model to describe the dynamic proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each setting. This analysis reveals that the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in Care Homes increases from the start of the pandemic and past the peak in total number of COVID-19 deaths in the first wave. After the catastrophic impact in the first wave, the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in Care Homes gradually decreased from is maximum after the first wave indicating residence were better protected in the second and third waves compared to the first.