Final size and partial distance estimate for the SEIRD model

TL;DR

This paper analyzes a two-group SEIRD epidemic model to estimate the final epidemic size and partial solution distances, applying it to COVID-19 spread in New York and Brazilian cities.

Contribution

It introduces a method to estimate solution distances between groups in a SEIRD model and studies the epidemic's final size for asymmetric populations.

Findings

Estimated solution distances for the second group based on the first group.

Derived final epidemic sizes for each group.

Applied model to COVID-19 data in New York and Brazilian cities.

Abstract

In this paper we consider a SEIRD epidemic model for a population composed by two groups with asymmetric interaction. Given two sets of parameters for the model, we estimate the distance of the solutions for the second group based on the distance of solutions for the first one. We also study the final size of the epidemic for each group. We illustrate our results with the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the New York County (USA) for the initial stage of the contamination, and in the the cities of Petrolina and Juazeiro (Brazil).