Early-Time Measure in Eternal Inflation

TL;DR

This paper proposes an early-time measure in eternal inflation, suggesting we are likely in vacua accessed during the approach to equilibrium, which has implications for the cosmological constant and landscape structure.

Contribution

It introduces an early-time measure based on first-passage statistics, offering a new perspective on vacuum selection during the approach to equilibrium in eternal inflation.

Findings

Vacua with maximal early-time volume have high hitting probability and short first-passage times.

Our vacuum's lifetime aligns with the de Sitter Page time, consistent with Higgs metastability.

The measure favors vacua with small positive vacuum energy and fewer flux dimensions.

Abstract

In a situation like eternal inflation, where our data is replicated at infinitely-many other space-time events, it is necessary to make a prior assumption about our location to extract predictions. The principle of mediocrity entails that we live at asymptotic late times, when the occupational probabilities of vacua has settled to a near-equilibrium distribution. In this paper we further develop the idea that we instead exist during the approach to equilibrium, much earlier than the exponentially-long mixing time. In this case we are most likely to reside in vacua that are easily accessed dynamically. Using first-passage statistics, we prove that vacua that maximize their space-time volume at early times have: 1. maximal ever-hitting probability; 2. minimal mean first-passage time; and 3. minimal decay rate. These requirements are succinctly captured by an early-time measure. The idea that we live at early times is a predictive guiding principle, with many phenomenological implications. First, our vacuum should lie deep in a funneled region, akin to folding energy landscapes of proteins. Second, optimal landscape regions are characterized by relatively short-lived vacua, with lifetime of order the de Sitter Page time. For our vacuum, this lifetime is $\sim 10^{130}$~years, which is consistent with the Standard Model estimate due to Higgs metastability. Third, the measure favors vacua with small, positive vacuum energy. This can address the cosmological constant problem, provided there are sufficiently many vacua in the entire ensemble of funnels. As a concrete example, we study the Bousso-Polchinski lattice of flux vacua, and find that the early-time measure favors lattices with the fewest number of flux dimensions. This favors compactifications with a large hierarchy between the lightest modulus and all other K\"ahler and complex structure moduli.