Analysis of the evolution of agroclimatic risks in a context of climate variability in the region of Segou in Mali

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the evolution of agroclimatic risks in Segou, Mali, using statistical methods to understand climate variability and its impact on rain-fed agriculture in the Sahel region.

Contribution

It provides a statistical modeling approach to assess agro-climatic risks and characterizes seasonal and inter-annual variability in a climate variability context.

Findings

Identification of probability distributions of agroclimatic risks

Analysis of seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters

Characterization of the rainy season in the region

Abstract

In the Sahel region the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in a context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities are described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters were analized as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.