Analysis and prediction of changes in the temperature of the pure freshwater ice column in the Antarctic and the Arctic

TL;DR

This study models and predicts the temperature changes in Antarctic and Arctic freshwater ice using a heat equation with phase transitions, employing meteorological data and numerical methods to forecast future conditions under various warming scenarios.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive mathematical and numerical framework for analyzing and predicting ice temperature changes considering phase transitions and climate scenarios.

Findings

Temperature profiles vary monthly and with depth.

Active layer depth and zero amplitude depth were determined.

Global warming scenarios show significant impacts on ice temperature regimes.

Abstract

This paper investigates the initial boundary value problem for a non-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the temperature distribution in freshwater ice near the Earth's poles. The mathematical model has been constructed taking into account solid-liquid phase transitions. Data from meteorological stations were used to determine the model parameters, with the help of which the necessary physical and thermophysical characteristics of the computational domain were obtained. For the numerical solution of the problem, the finite volume method (FVM) was used. For the obtained periodic regime, the temperature versus depth dependences for each month were plotted, and the depth of the active layer, as well as the depth of zero annual amplitudes were found for each meteorological station. A forecast of the ice temperature regime for 2100 was modeled for three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of global warming: moderate RCP2.6, corresponding to the current emissions of RCP7 and adopted at the Paris Agreement in 2015 RCP1.9. By analyzing the impact of an additional 0,5 degrees Celsius of warming on other areas, a reduction in the full range of risks to humanity and the planet as a whole becomes evident with the proper efforts of the global community. Thus, the conducted modeling has confirmed the need to reduce the rate of global warming.