A Modified SEIR Model for the Spread of COVID-19 Considering Different Vaccine Types

TL;DR

This paper introduces a modified SEIR model that incorporates different COVID-19 vaccine types, revealing that double shot vaccines are more effective in reducing disease spread and fatalities than single shot vaccines.

Contribution

It is the first to explicitly model the effects of different vaccine types within the SEIR framework for COVID-19.

Findings

Double shot vaccines reduce infection rates more effectively.

Double shot vaccines lower fatality rates compared to single shot vaccines.

Vaccine administration policies significantly influence disease dynamics.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the lives of people globally. In the past year many researchers have proposed different models and approaches to explore in what ways the spread of the disease could be mitigated. One of the models that have been used a great deal is the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Some researchers have modified the traditional SEIR model, and proposed new versions of it. However, to the best of our knowledge, the state-of-the-art papers have not considered the effect of different vaccine types, meaning single shot and double shot vaccines, in their SEIR model. In this paper, we propose a modified version of the SEIR model which takes into account the effect of different vaccine types. We compare how different policies for the administration of the vaccine can influence the rate at which people are exposed to the disease, get infected, recover, and pass away. Our results suggest that taking the double shot vaccine such as Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna does a better job at mitigating the spread and fatality rate of the disease compared to the single shot vaccine, due to its higher efficacy.