Young people between education and the labour market during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

TL;DR

This study examines how COVID-19 affected young Italians' transition from education to work, revealing increased unemployment, inactivity, and longer transition durations, especially among females and residents of Southern Italy.

Contribution

It provides the first rigorous analysis of COVID-19's impact on young people's career trajectories in Italy, focusing on transition durations and employment types.

Findings

Higher unemployment and inactivity rates during COVID-19.

Prolonged school-to-work transition durations, especially for males and non-Italians.

Increased return to schooling during the pandemic.

Abstract

We analyse the distribution and the flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity, with particular focus on the duration of the school-to-work transition (STWT). The aim is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy on the careers of individuals aged 15-34. We find that the pandemic worsened an already concerning situation of higher unemployment and inactivity rates and significantly longer STWT duration compared to other EU countries, particularly for females and residents in the South of Italy. In the midst of the pandemic, individuals aged 20-29 were less in (permanent and temporary) employment and more in the NLFET (Neither in the Labour Force nor in Education or Training) state, particularly females and non Italian citizens. We also provide evidence of an increased propensity to return to schooling, but most importantly of a substantial prolongation of the STWT duration towards permanent employment, mostly for males and non Italian citizens. Our contribution lies in providing a rigorous estimation and analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the carriers of young individuals in Italy, which has not yet been explored in the literature.