Epidemic modelling of multiple virus strains: a case study of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in Moscow

TL;DR

This paper presents a modified SEIR model to simulate multiple virus strains, specifically analyzing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in Moscow, predicting a potential new wave of infections with up to 35,000 daily cases.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel multi-strain epidemic model and applies it to SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in Moscow, providing insights into strain interactions and outbreak predictions.

Findings

High risk of a new infection wave in Moscow in late 2021.

Potential peak of 35,000 daily infections.

Open-source code and data for further research.

Abstract

During a long-running pandemic a pathogen can mutate, producing new strains with different epidemiological parameters. Existing approaches to epidemic modelling only consider one virus strain. We have developed a modified SEIR model to simulate multiple virus strains within the same population. As a case study, we investigate the potential effects of SARS-CoV-2 strain B.1.1.7 on the city of Moscow. Our analysis indicates a high risk of a new wave of infections in September-October 2021 with up to 35 000 daily infections at peak. We open-source our code and data.