Evidence for lensing of gravitational waves from LIGO-Virgo

TL;DR

This paper argues that the observed gravitational wave events could be strongly lensed, challenging LIGO-Virgo's conclusion that lensing evidence is unlikely, by analyzing merger rates, priors, and time delays.

Contribution

It presents a reinterpretation of gravitational wave data, suggesting that many events are likely strongly lensed, contrary to previous claims, based on updated merger rates and lensing models.

Findings

High merger rates at z=1-2 can produce multiple observable lensed GW events annually.

Revised priors and lensing models support the strong lensing hypothesis for observed GW pairs.

LVC's original conclusions are challenged when considering lensing probabilities and time delay distributions.

Abstract

Recently, the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration (LVC) concluded that there is no evidence for lensed gravitational waves (GW) in the first half of the O3 run, claiming "We find the observation of lensed events to be unlikely, with the fractional rate at $\mu>2$ being $3.3\times 10^{-4}$". While we agree that the chance of an individual GW event being lensed at $\mu>2$ is smaller than $10^{-3}$, the number of observed events depends on the product of this small probability times the rate of mergers at high redshift. Observational constraints from the stochastic GW background indicate that the rate of conventional mass BBH mergers (8 < M (M$_{\odot}$) < 15) in the redshift range 1<z< 2 could be as high as O($10^7$) events per year, more than sufficient to compensate for the intrinsically low probability of lensing. To reach the LVC trigger threshold these events require high magnification, but would still produce up to 10 to 30 LVC observable events per year. Thus, all the LVC observed ordinary stellar mass BBH mergers from this epoch must be strongly lensed. By adopting low-rates at high redshift, LVC assumes that lensed events can not be taking place, thus incorrectly assigning them a closer distance and higher masses by a factor of a few (typically 2 to 5). The LVC adopted priors on time delay are in tension with the distribution of observed time delays in lensed quasars. Pairs of events like GW190421-GW190910 and GW190424-GW190910, which are directly assigned a probability of zero by LVC, should be instead considered as prime candidates to be strongly lensed GW pairs, since their separation in time is consistent with observations of time delays in lensed quasars. Correcting for the LVC wrong Bayesian priors, maximum merger rate of conventional mass BBH in 1<z<2, and gravitational lensing time-delay model, reverses the LVC conclusions and supports the strong gravitational lensing hypothesis.