An age-structured SEIR model for COVID--19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost

TL;DR

This paper introduces an age-structured SEIR model tailored for COVID-19 in Dublin, Ireland, enabling evaluation of different lockdown strategies and their socio-economic impacts through adaptable contact matrices and counterfactual analysis.

Contribution

The paper presents a flexible, locally adaptable age-structured SEIR model that incorporates social contact matrices for evaluating COVID-19 interventions and their costs.

Findings

Model accurately fits Irish COVID-19 incidence data.

Enables simulation of various lockdown scenarios.

Provides uncertainty quantification for policy planning.

Abstract

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID-19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID-19 variants have a strong association with age, while restrictive lockdown measures have association with negative mental health outcomes in some age groups. Reduced economic prospects may also afflict some age cohorts more than others. Motivated by this, we propose a model to describe COVID-19 community spread incorporating the role of age-specific social interactions. Through a flexible parameterisation of an age-structured deterministic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed (SEIR) model, we provide a means for characterising different forms of lockdown which may impact specific age groups differently. Social interactions are represented through age group to age group contact matrices, which can be trained using available data and are thus locally adapted. This framework is easy to interpret and suitable for describing counterfactual scenarios, which could assist policy makers with regard to minimising morbidity balanced with the costs of prospective suppression strategies. Our work originates from an Irish context and we use disease monitoring data from February 29th 2020 to January 31st 2021 gathered by Irish governmental agencies. We demonstrate how Irish lockdown scenarios can be constructed using the proposed model formulation and show results of retrospective fitting to incidence rates and forward planning with relevant ``what if/instead of'' lockdown counterfactuals with uncertainty quantification. Our formulation is agnostic to a specific locale, in that lockdown strategies in other regions can be straightforwardly encoded using this model. The methods we describe are made publicly available online through an accessible and easy to use web interface.