Hybrid Machine Learning Forecasts for the UEFA EURO 2020

TL;DR

This paper introduces a hybrid machine learning model that combines multiple statistical ranking methods and predictors to forecast UEFA EURO 2020 match outcomes, providing probabilities and survival chances for all teams.

Contribution

It develops a novel hybrid approach integrating diverse predictors and statistical rankings for football match forecasting, applied specifically to UEFA EURO 2020.

Findings

France has the highest winning probability at 14.8%.

The model provides detailed survival probabilities for all teams.

Multiple predictors improve forecast accuracy.

Abstract

Three state-of-the-art statistical ranking methods for forecasting football matches are combined with several other predictors in a hybrid machine learning model. Namely an ability estimate for every team based on historic matches; an ability estimate for every team based on bookmaker consensus; average plus-minus player ratings based on their individual performances in their home clubs and national teams; and further team covariates (e.g., market value, team structure) and country-specific socio-economic factors (population, GDP). The proposed combined approach is used for learning the number of goals scored in the matches from the four previous UEFA EUROs 2004-2016 and then applied to current information to forecast the upcoming UEFA EURO 2020. Based on the resulting estimates, the tournament is simulated repeatedly and winning probabilities are obtained for all teams. A random forest model favors the current World Champion France with a winning probability of 14.8% before England (13.5%) and Spain (12.3%). Additionally, we provide survival probabilities for all teams and at all tournament stages.