The impacts of the electricity demand pattern on electricity system cost and the electricity supply mix: a comprehensive modeling analysis for Europe

TL;DR

This study uses a techno-economic model to analyze how different future electricity demand patterns impact system costs and supply mix in Europe, revealing minor cost differences but significant changes in supply composition.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive modeling approach to evaluate the effects of uncertain demand patterns on long-term electricity system planning.

Findings

Diurnal demand pattern changes affect costs by less than 3%.

Summer peak demand can increase system costs by up to 8%.

Electricity supply mix can vary significantly with demand pattern assumptions.

Abstract

Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly. Although the volume change for the electricity demand is considered, the potential change of the demand pattern is ignored. Meanwhile, the future electricity demand pattern is highly uncertain due to various factors, including climate change, e-mobility, electric heating, and electric cooling. We use a techno-economic cost optimization model to investigate a stylized case and assess the effects on system cost and electricity supply mix of assuming different demand patterns for the models. Our results show that differences in diurnal demand patterns affect the system cost by less than 3%. Similarly, demand profiles with a flat seasonal variation or a winter peak result in only minor changes in system cost, as compared to the present demand profile. Demand profiles with a summer peak may display a system cost increase of up to 8%, whereas the electricity supply mix may differ by a factor of two. A more detailed case study is conducted for Europe and the results are consistent with the findings from the stylized case.