Sensitivity analysis for random measurement error using regression calibration and simulation-extrapolation

TL;DR

This study compares regression calibration and simulation-extrapolation methods for sensitivity analysis of measurement error without validation data, finding regression calibration to be unbiased and more reliable.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive comparison of regression calibration and simulation-extrapolation for measurement error sensitivity analysis without validation data.

Findings

Regression calibration was unbiased across scenarios.

Simulation-extrapolation showed bias and slightly higher MSE.

Regression calibration maintained nominal confidence interval coverage.

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis for measurement error can be applied in the absence of validation data by means of regression calibration and simulation-extrapolation. These have not been compared for this purpose. A simulation study was conducted comparing the performance of regression calibration and simulation-extrapolation in a multivariable model. The performance of the two methods was evaluated in terms of bias, mean squared error (MSE) and confidence interval coverage, for ranging reliability of the error-prone measurement (0.2-0.9), sample size (125-1,000), number of replicates (2-10), and R-squared (0.03-0.75). It was assumed that no validation data were available about the error-free measures, while measurement error variance was correctly estimated. In various scenarios, regression calibration was unbiased while simulation-extrapolation was biased: median bias was 1.4% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.8;2%), and -12.8% (IQR: -13.2;-11.0%), respectively. A small gain in efficiency was observed for simulation-extrapolation (median MSE: 0.005, IQR: 0.004;0.006) versus regression calibration (median MSE: 0.006, IQR: 0.004;0.007). Confidence interval coverage was at the nominal level of 95% for regression calibration, and smaller than 95% for simulation-extrapolation (median coverage: 92%, IQR: 85;94%). In the absence of validation data, the use of regression calibration is recommended for sensitivity analysis for measurement error.