Assessing the impact of social activity permissiveness on the COVID-19 infection curve of several countries

TL;DR

This paper uses a modified SIR model incorporating a permissiveness index to analyze how social distancing measures affect COVID-19 infection curves across countries, balancing economic reactivation and health risks.

Contribution

It introduces a novel modified SIR model that accounts for social activity permissiveness and vaccination progress, enabling better prediction of multiple infection waves.

Findings

Relaxing social distancing can be feasible with ongoing vaccination.

The model predicts multiple infection waves based on social permissiveness.

Graphical tools help assess optimal timing for easing restrictions.

Abstract

This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, which is modified to incorporate a permissiveness index, representing the isolation achieved by the social distancing and the future development of vaccination campaigns and allowing the math model to reproduce more than one infection wave. The adjusted SIR models are used to study the compromise between the economy's reactivation and the resulting infection spreading increase. The document presents a graphical-abacus that describes the convenience of progressively relax social distancing measures while a feasible vaccination campaign develops