Testing the Goodwin Growth Cycles with Econophysics Approach in 2002-2019 Period in Turkey

TL;DR

This study applies an econophysical approach to analyze Turkey's 2002-2019 economy, revealing income distribution patterns, class structure, and cyclical dynamics aligned with historical events.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of Gompertz-Pareto and Goodwin cycle analyses to Turkish economic data over an extended period.

Findings

Income distribution fits Gompertz-Pareto well

Identified a stable two-class economic structure

Detected a consistent Goodwin cycle with an 18.3-year period

Abstract

The Turkish economy between 2002-2019 period has been investigated within the econophysical approach. From the individual income data obtained from the Household Budget Survey, the Gompertz-Pareto distribution for each year and Goodwin cycle for the mentioned period have been obtained. For this period, in which thirteen elections were held under the single-party rule, it has been observed that the income distribution fits well with the Gompertz-Pareto distribution which shows the two-class structure of the Turkish economy. The variation of the threshold value $x_t$ (which separates these two classes) as well as Pareto coefficient have been obtained. Besides, Goodwin cycle has been observed within this period, centered at $(u,v)\cong (66.30,83.40)$ and a period of $T=18.30$ years. It has been concluded that these observations are consistent with the economic and social events experienced in the mentioned period.