Adaptive Epidemic Forecasting and Community Risk Evaluation of COVID-19

TL;DR

This paper introduces a flexible, integrated forecasting and risk evaluation system for COVID-19 that adapts to changing transmission trends, aiding policymakers and institutions in making informed reopening decisions.

Contribution

It presents a novel end-to-end solution combining public health data with client-specific information for accurate risk assessment and forecasting of COVID-19 at various geo-spatial levels.

Findings

Our forecasting model outperforms existing baselines.

The system provides actionable insights for diverse stakeholders.

It effectively captures dynamic transmission and mobility trends.

Abstract

Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To craft strategies and policies that reduce the hardship on the people and the economy while being effective against the pandemic, authorities need to understand the disease dynamics at the right geo-spatial granularity. Considering factors like the hospitals' ability to handle the fluctuating demands, evaluating various reopening scenarios, and accurate forecasting of cases are vital to decision making. Towards this end, we present a flexible end-to-end solution that seamlessly integrates public health data with tertiary client data to accurately estimate the risk of reopening a community. At its core lies a state-of-the-art prediction model that auto-captures changing trends in transmission and mobility. Benchmarking against various published baselines confirm the superiority of our forecasting algorithm. Combined with the ability to extend to multiple client-specific requirements and perform deductive reasoning through counter-factual analysis, this solution provides actionable insights to multiple client domains ranging from government to educational institutions, hospitals, and commercial establishments.