The Effect of Weekend Curfews on Epidemics: A Monte Carlo Simulation

TL;DR

This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate how weekend curfews impact the spread of COVID-19, demonstrating their effectiveness in reducing active cases in a modeled population.

Contribution

It introduces a hybrid lattice Monte Carlo model to simulate the effects of weekend curfews on epidemic dynamics, providing quantitative insights.

Findings

Weekend curfews significantly reduce active cases.

Personal precautions like social distancing further decrease cases and deaths.

Curfews are an effective epidemic control measure.

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is being responded with various methods, applying vaccines, experimental treatment options, total lockdowns or partial curfews. Weekend curfews is one of the methods to reduce the amount of infected persons and this method is practically applied in some countries such as Turkey. In this study, the effect of weekend curfews on reducing the spread of a contagious disease, such as COVID-19, is modeled using a Monte Carlo algorithm with a hybrid lattice model. In the simulation setup, a fictional country with three towns and 26,610 citizens were used as a model. Results indicate that applying a weekend curfew reduces the active cases significantly and is one of the efficient ways to fight the epidemic. The results also show that applying personal precautions such as social distancing is important for reducing the number of cases and deaths.