Identifying Brexit voting patterns in the British House of Commons: an analysis based on Bayesian mixture models with flexible concomitant covariate effects

TL;DR

This paper develops a Bayesian mixture model with flexible covariate effects to analyze UK Parliament voting patterns on Brexit, revealing how MP characteristics influence their voting behavior and groupings.

Contribution

It introduces a novel flexible mixture model with nonlinear covariate effects to identify voting groups and analyze MP characteristics' influence on Brexit votes.

Findings

MP age influences voting behavior

Constituency preferences affect Brexit stance

MP groups differ from party lines

Abstract

Brexit and its implications are an ongoing topic of interest since the Brexit referendum in 2016. In 2019 the House of commons held a number of "indicative" and "meaningful" votes as part of the Brexit approval process. The voting behaviour of members of the parliament in these votes is investigated to gain insight into the Brexit approval process. In particular, a mixture model with concomitant covariates is developed to identify groups of members of parliament who share similar voting behaviour while also considering characteristics of the members of parliament. The novelty of the method lies in the flexible structure used to model the effect of concomitant covariates on the component weights of the mixture, with the (potentially nonlinear) terms represented as a smooth function of the covariates. Results show this approach allows to quantify the effect of the age of members of parliament, as well as preferences and competitiveness in the constituencies they represent, on their position towards Brexit. This helps grouping the aforementioned politicians into homogeous clusters, whose composition departs sensibly from that of the parties.