Survival of exomoons around exoplanets
V. Dobos, S. Charnoz, A. P\'al, A. Roque-Bernard, Gy. M. Szab\'o

TL;DR
This study models the long-term tidal evolution of hypothetical exomoons around exoplanets to identify which planets are most likely to host stable moons, explaining the scarcity of exomoon detections.
Contribution
It introduces a tidal evolution model applied to real exoplanet data, revealing how orbital period influences exomoon stability and survival.
Findings
Moons are unlikely to survive around planets with orbital periods less than 10 days.
Survival rate of exomoons increases from 0% to 70% for planets with 10-300 days orbital periods.
Tidal forces cause moons to escape or be disrupted around close-in planets.
Abstract
Despite numerous attempts, no exomoon has firmly been confirmed to date. New missions like CHEOPS aim to characterize previously detected exoplanets, and potentially to discover exomoons. In order to optimize search strategies, we need to determine those planets which are the most likely to host moons. We investigate the tidal evolution of hypothetical moon orbits in systems consisting of a star, one planet and one test moon. We study a few specific cases with ten billion years integration time where the evolution of moon orbits follows one of these three scenarios: (1) "locking", in which the moon has a stable orbit on a long time scale ( 10 years); (2) "escape scenario" where the moon leaves the planet's gravitational domain; and (3) "disruption scenario", in which the moon migrates inwards until it reaches the Roche lobe and becomes disrupted by strong tidal forces.…
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