A novel mathematical analysis and threshold reinforcement of a stochastic dengue epidemic model with L\'evy jumps

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new stochastic dengue epidemic model incorporating environmental randomness via Lévy jumps, providing mathematical analysis of its long-term behavior and numerical validation of the effects of stochastic perturbations.

Contribution

It presents a novel Itô-Lévy stochastic model for dengue spread, with rigorous analysis of extinction and persistence, and demonstrates the impact of environmental stochasticity on disease dynamics.

Findings

Model accounts for environmental fluctuations and jumps.

Conditions for disease extinction and persistence are established.

Numerical examples illustrate the influence of stochastic parameters.

Abstract

The rampant phenomenon of overpopulation and the remarkable increase of human movements over the last decade have caused an aggressive re-emergence of dengue fever, which made it the subject of several research fields. In this regard, mathematical modeling, and notably through compartmental systems, is considered as an eminent tool to obtain a clear overview of this disease's prevalence behavior. In reality, and like all epidemics, the dengue spread phenomenon is often subject to some randomness due to the different natural environment fluctuations. For this reason, a mathematical formulation that considers suitably as much as possible the external stochasticity is indeed required. By this token, we strive in this work to present and analyze a generalized stochastic dengue model that incorporates both slight and huge environmental perturbations. More precisely, our proposed model is represented under the form of an It\^o-L\'evy stochastic differential equations system that we demonstrate its mathematical well-posedness and biological significance. Based on some novel analytical techniques, we prove, and under appropriate hypothetical frameworks, of course, two important asymptotic properties, namely: extinction and persistence in the mean. The theoretical findings show that the dynamics of our disturbed dengue model are mainly determined by the parameters that are narrowly related to the small perturbations' intensities and the jumps magnitudes. In the end, we give certain numerical illustrative examples to support our theoretical findings and to highlight the effect of the adopted mathematical techniques on the results.