A fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach for Exo-Planetary Habitability

TL;DR

This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach to rank exoplanets for habitability potential, aiding future biomarker searches by prioritizing candidates based on multiple criteria and fuzzy logic.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of the Fuzzy Reference Ideal Method (FRIM) to exoplanet habitability ranking, integrating fuzzy logic with multi-criteria decision-making.

Findings

Kepler-442b, Kepler-062e/f, and LHS_1140b are top candidates for biomarker searches.

TRAPPIST-1e is the best candidate considering current technical feasibility.

The method effectively ranks 1798 exoplanets based on habitability criteria.

Abstract

Nowadays, we know thousands of exoplanets, some of them potentially habitable. Next technological facilities (JWST, for example) have exoplanet atmosphere analysis capabilities, but they also have limits in terms of how many targets can be studied. Therefore, there is a need to rank and prioritize these exoplanets with the aim of searching for biomarkers. Some criteria involved, such as the habitability potential of a dry-rock planet versus a water-rich planet, or a potentially-locked planet versus a tidally-locked planet, are often vague and the use of the fuzzy set theory is advisable. We have applied a combination of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making methodologies with fuzzy logic, the Fuzzy Reference Ideal Method (FRIM), to this problem. We have analyzed the habitability potential of 1798 exoplanets from TEPCat database based on a set of criteria (composition, atmosphere, energy, tidal locking, type of planet and liquid water), in terms of their similarity to the only ideal alternative, The Earth. Our results, when compared with the probability index SEPHI, indicate that Kepler-442b, Kepler-062e/f, and LHS_1140b are the best exoplanets for searching for biomarkers, regardless its technical difficulty. If we take into account current technical feasibility, the best candidate is TRAPPIST-1e.