Modeling CoVid-19 Diffusion with Intelligent Computational Techniques is not Working. What Are We Doing Wrong?

TL;DR

This paper critiques current CoVid-19 diffusion models and proposes using rapid tests to identify secondary infections early, aiming to improve contact tracing efficiency amid testing system overload.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach of employing less sensitive rapid tests to detect super spreaders, reducing reliance on PCR tests and enhancing early detection.

Findings

Rapid tests can effectively identify super spreaders.

Early detection reduces PCR test burden.

Improved contact tracing efficiency.

Abstract

As Europe is experiencing a second violent CoVid-19 storm, with the PCR-based testing system deteriorating due to the high volumes of people to be tested daily, there is a general reconsideration of the mathematical theories at the basis of our contact tracing and testing approaches. Drawing upon the concept of super spreader, we propose the use of (less sensitive) rapid tests to detect those secondary infections that do not need the use of PCRs, thus saving the most part of PCR tests currently used. This before the system fails.