Are renewable energies on a sustained path? Analysis of selected case-studies from the pre-pandemic-era

TL;DR

This study uses multivariate diffusion models to analyze the competitiveness and future prospects of renewable energy technologies in various countries from 1965 to 2019, highlighting their role in energy transition.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative assessment of renewable energy technologies' competitiveness and their relationship with natural gas during the energy transition period.

Findings

Renewable energies have a strong competitive effect against natural gas.

Natural gas generally acts as a bridging technology for renewables.

Renewable energy adoption is influenced by political and energy contexts.

Abstract

Provided widespread vaccination will bring the COVID-19 pandemic under full control worldwide, the contrast to climate change and the energy transition as one of its main actions will return at the top of national and international policy agendas. This paper employs multivariate diffusion models to investigate and quantitatively assess the competitive power of renewable energy technologies and their perspectives along the invoked energy transition. The study was conducted for the period 1965-2019 on a number of selected case studies, that were considered critically representative of the current transition process in view of their energy and political context. The dynamic relationship between renewable technologies and natural gas has been at the core of the analysis, trying to establish whether gas could be considered as a bridging technology or a lock-in. The main findings show that in all the analyzed countries RETs have exerted a strongly competitive effect towards gas. In most cases, gas is found to have a bridging role, aiding the uptake of renewables.