A new stochastic framework for ship capsizing

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel stochastic framework combining transition state theory and stochastic reachability to analyze ship capsizing, aiming to predict rates and improve safety strategies under stochastic sea conditions.

Contribution

It develops an innovative theoretical framework integrating dissipative non-autonomous systems and Markovian stochastic reachability for ship capsize analysis.

Findings

Framework combines two transition state theories.

Potential for predicting capsize rates in stochastic seas.

Foundation for future control and design improvements.

Abstract

We present a new stochastic framework for studying ship capsize. It is a synthesis of two strands of transition state theory. The first is an extension of deterministic transition state theory to dissipative non-autonomous systems, together with a probability distribution over the forcing functions. The second is stochastic reachability and large deviation theory for transition paths in Markovian systems. In future work we aim to bring these together to make a tool for predicting capsize rate in different stochastic sea states, suggesting control strategies and improving designs.