On the role of Initial Error Growth in the Skill of Extended Range Prediction of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

TL;DR

This study investigates how initial errors affect the skill of extended-range MJO forecasts, finding that after 7-10 days, initial errors do not significantly influence forecast accuracy, highlighting the importance of physical model improvements.

Contribution

It demonstrates that initial errors have limited impact beyond 7-10 days in MJO prediction and emphasizes improving model representation of MJO phases over the Indian Ocean.

Findings

Initial errors do not influence forecast skill after 7-10 days.

Error growth is similar regardless of initial error magnitude.

Errors mainly originate from initial phases over Western Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Abstract

The seamless forecast approach of subseasonal to seasonal scale variability has been succeeding in the forecast of multiple meteorological scales in a uniform framework. In this paradigm, it is hypothesized that reduction in initial error in dynamical forecast would help to reduce forecast error in extended lead-time up to 2-3 weeks. This is tested in a version of operational extended range forecasts based on Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) developed at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. Forecast skills are assessed to understand the role of initial errors on the prediction skill for MJO. A set of lowest and highest initial day error (LIDE & HIDE) cases are defined and the error-growth for these categories are analysed for the strong MJO events during May to September (MJJAS). The MJO forecast initial errors are categorized and defined using the well-known multivariate MJO index introduced by Wheeler &Hendon (2004). The probability distribution of bivariate RMSE and error growth evolution (first order difference of index error for each successive lead days) with respect to extended range lead-time are used as metrics in this analysis. The result showed that initial error is not showing any influence in the skill of model after a lead time of 7-10 days and the error growth remains the same for both set of errors. A rapid error growth evolution of same order is seen for both the classified cases. Further the physical attribution of these errors is studied and found that the errors originate from the events with initial phase in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean. The spatial distribution of OLR and the zonal winds also confirms the same. The study emphasises the importance of better representation of MJO phases especially over Indian ocean in the model to improve the MJO prediction rather than focusing primarily on the initial condition