Trajectories of long duration balloons launched from McMurdo Station in Antarctica

TL;DR

This paper analyzes 40 long-duration balloon flights from Antarctica to quantify their trajectory statistics, providing valuable probabilistic data to aid future mission planning and decision-making.

Contribution

It offers the first detailed quantification of balloon trajectory probabilities and latitude ranges based on extensive historical flight data from Antarctica.

Findings

90% probability of reaching 88°S or 71°S for median 19-day flights

Shorter flights have smaller latitude ranges

Trajectory statistics are publicly available for planning

Abstract

The Columbia Scientific Ballooning Facility operates stratospheric balloon flights out of McMurdo Station in Antarctica. We use balloon trajectory data from 40 flights between 1991 and 2016 to give the first quantification of trajectory statistics. We provide the probabilities as a function of time for the payload to be between given latitudes, and we quantify the southernmost and northernmost latitudes a payload is likely to attain. We find that for the median flight duration of 19 days, there is 90% probability the balloon would drift as far south as $88^{\circ}$S or as far north as $71^{\circ}$S; shorter flights are likely to experience smaller ranges in latitude. These statistics, which are available digitally in the public domain, will enable scientists planning future balloon flights make informed decisions during both mission design and execution.