The Drake Equation at 60: Reconsidered and Abandoned

TL;DR

This paper critically reevaluates the Drake Equation, proposing a simplified factor fd, and concludes that only active SETI efforts and contact can determine the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

Contribution

It redefines the Drake Equation into a single detectability factor fd, emphasizing the need for active SETI programs to estimate N.

Findings

Redefinition of the Drake Equation to a single factor fd

The original equation cannot solve for N without contact or SETI

Active SETI is essential for estimating extraterrestrial civilizations

Abstract

Each of the individual factors of the Drake Equation is considered. Each in turn is either abandoned or redefined and finally reduced to a single new factor, fd, the fraction of technological life that is detectable by any means. However, neither the Drake Equation, nor its replacement, can actually solve for N. Only a vibrant SETI program and, ultimately, contact with an alien civilization might result in the determination of N.