Herd immunity for Covid-19 in homogeneous populations

TL;DR

This paper estimates herd immunity thresholds for Covid-19 using a standard SEIR model, suggesting 80-90% for unprotected populations and 50-60% with basic protective measures, informing public health strategies.

Contribution

It provides quantitative estimates of herd immunity levels for Covid-19 in homogeneous populations using a standard epidemiological model.

Findings

Herd immunity levels are estimated between 80-90% for unprotected populations.

Basic protective measures can reduce herd immunity thresholds to 50-60%.

Results inform public health policies for Covid-19 control.

Abstract

In this note we estimate herd immunity levels for the Covid-19 epidemic using a standard SEIR system that models the disease dynamics in homogeneous populations. The results obtained are indicative of values between 80% and 90% for unprotected, fully susceptible populations. Basic protective measures such as hand hygiene and mask wearing may be effective to lower herd immunity levels down to values between 50% and 60% of the total population.