Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in India: Social Distancing, Regional Spread and Healthcare Capacity

TL;DR

This paper develops a comprehensive compartmental model for COVID-19 transmission in India, incorporating social distancing, regional migration, and healthcare capacity to inform policy decisions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel compartmental model with social distancing and migration factors, and proposes metrics to assess healthcare saturation and regional spread.

Findings

Quantifies the impact of social distancing on transmission rates.

Analyzes regional migration effects on case rise.

Studies healthcare system saturation and its consequences.

Abstract

In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policy makers are in a constant need for appropriate metrics and estimates in order to determine the best policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. Thus, in this paper, a compartmentalized model for the transmission of COVID-19 is developed to facilitate policy making. A socially distanced compartment is added to the model and its utility in quantifying the magnitude of voluntary social distancing is illustrated. Modifications are made to incorporate inter-region migration, and suitable metrics are proposed to quantify the impact of migration on the rise of cases. The healthcare capacity is modeled and a method is developed to study the consequences of the saturation of the healthcare system. The model and related measures are used to study the nature of the transmission and spread of COVID-19 in India, and appropriate insights are drawn.