Time series forecasting of new cases and new deaths rate for COVID-19 using deep learning methods

TL;DR

This paper evaluates deep learning models, including bidirectional variants, for predicting COVID-19 new cases and deaths over 1, 3, and 7 days, demonstrating bidirectional models' superior accuracy.

Contribution

It is the first comprehensive comparison of Bi-GRU and Bi-Conv-LSTM models for COVID-19 time series prediction, highlighting their improved performance.

Findings

Bidirectional models outperform unidirectional counterparts.

Bi-GRU and Bi-Conv-LSTM show lower prediction errors.

Evaluation includes multiple error metrics and statistical tests.

Abstract

The first known case of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in December 2019. It has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic, imposed restrictions and costs to many countries. Predicting the number of new cases and deaths during this period can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities required in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict new cases and deaths rate one, three and seven-day ahead during the next 100 days. The motivation for predicting every n days (instead of just every day) is the investigation of the possibility of computational cost reduction and still achieving reasonable performance. Such a scenario may be encountered in real-time forecasting of time series. Six different deep learning methods are examined on the data adopted from the WHO website. Three methods are LSTM, Convolutional LSTM, and GRU. The bidirectional extension is then considered for each method to forecast the rate of new cases and new deaths in Australia and Iran countries. This study is novel as it carries out a comprehensive evaluation of the aforementioned three deep learning methods and their bidirectional extensions to perform prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new death rate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Bi-GRU and Bi-Conv-LSTM models are used for prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new deaths time series. The evaluation of the methods is presented in the form of graphs and Friedman statistical test. The results show that the bidirectional models have lower errors than other models. A several error evaluation metrics are presented to compare all models, and finally, the superiority of bidirectional methods is determined. This research could be useful for organisations working against COVID-19 and determining their long-term plans.