SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in University Classes

TL;DR

This study models SARS-CoV-2 spread in university classes, showing that aggressive class size restrictions and controlling symptomatic transmission are crucial for outbreak mitigation.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed simulation of COVID-19 transmission in university settings, analyzing the impact of class size policies and symptomatic transmission on outbreak dynamics.

Findings

Large class size restrictions reduce outbreak risk

Symptomatic transmission significantly influences outbreak size

Aggressive control strategies are necessary for effective mitigation

Abstract

We investigate transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 on a real network of classes at Simon Fraser University, a medium-sized school in Western Canada. Outbreaks are simulated over the course of one semester across numerous parameter settings for a realistic compartment model, including asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. We investigate the control strategy of moving large classes online while small classes are allowed to meet in person. Regression trees are used to model the effect of disease parameters on simulation outputs; specifically, the total number of infections and the peak number of simultaneous cases. We find that an aggressive class size thresolding strategy is required to mitigate the risk of a large outbreak, and that transmission by symptomatic individuals is a key driver of outbreak size,