Extinction in complex communities as driven by adaptive dynamics

TL;DR

This paper provides analytical solutions to adaptive dynamics equations in complex communities, enabling precise predictions of species extinction events and equilibrium abundances without relying solely on simulations.

Contribution

It introduces analytical formulas for adaptive dynamics, clarifying how community outcomes depend on model parameters and predicting extinction timelines.

Findings

Derived formulas for equilibrium abundances over evolutionary time

Predicted which species will go extinct and when

Clarified dependence of outcomes on model parameters

Abstract

In a complex community, species continuously adapt to each other. On rare occasions, the adaptation of a species can lead to the extinction of others, and even its own. "Adaptive dynamics" is the standard mathematical framework to describe evolutionary changes in community interactions, and in particular, predict adaptation driven extinction. Unfortunately, most authors implement the equations of adaptive dynamics through computer simulations, that require assuming a large number of questionable parameters and fitness functions. In this study we present analytical solutions to adaptive dynamics equations, thereby clarifying how outcomes depend on any computational input. We develop general formulas that predict equilibrium abundances over evolutionary time scales. Additionally, we predict which species will go extinct next, and when this will happen.