Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates PhD completion

TL;DR

This study finds that undergraduate GPA is a better predictor of graduate GPA and PhD completion than GRE scores, with UGPA influencing success indirectly through graduate grades, highlighting its importance in admissions decisions.

Contribution

The paper demonstrates that undergraduate GPA is a more effective and equitable predictor of graduate success and PhD completion than GRE scores, with implications for admissions practices.

Findings

UGPA predicts graduate GPA and PhD completion more effectively than GRE scores.

Graduate GPA mediates the relationship between UGPA and PhD completion.

GRE scores are less predictive of graduate success and PhD completion.

Abstract

An analysis of 1,955 physics graduate students from 19 PhD programs shows that undergraduate grade point average predicts graduate grades and PhD completion more effectively than GRE scores. Students' undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and GRE Physics (GRE-P) scores are small but statistically significant predictors of graduate course grades, while GRE quantitative and GRE verbal scores are not. We also find that males and females score equally well in their graduate coursework despite a statistically significant 18 percentile point gap in median GRE-P scores between genders. A counterfactual mediation analysis demonstrates that among admission metrics tested only UGPA is a significant predictor of overall PhD completion, and that UGPA predicts PhD completion indirectly through graduate grades. Thus UGPA measures traits linked to graduate course grades, which in turn predict graduate completion. Although GRE-P scores are not significantly associated with PhD completion, our results suggest that any predictive effect they may have are also linked indirectly through graduate GPA. Overall our results indicate that among commonly used quantitative admissions metrics, UGPA offers the most insight into two important measures of graduate school success, while posing fewer concerns for equitable admissions practices.